More Questions than Answers in Today’s Economy

For the first time in years, there are many more questions about this economy than there are answers. We are in the midst of an historic era of uncertainty where there does not seem to be a majority of economic experts who essentially believe in the same fiscal or monetary parameters. Just the fact that an estimated half of experts and citizens alike expect a recession and the other half does not makes for more uncertainty.

Many are convinced we are headed for a recession. After all, GDP growth in the U.S. was negative 1.5 percent in the first quarter. It is unlikely that changed much in the second quarter. Some economists call a recession after two straight quarters of zero growth. My rule of thumb is three quarters or even an entire four quarters of non-GDP growth.

Others maintain there are no recessionary indicators out there since the U.S. consumer is alive and well. . .or at least it was. Different parts of the consumer economy collapsed in May and June.

Significant increase in the costs of fuel, used cars, energy, utility services, food, labor and interest rates have vaulted inflation in some places in the U.S. by over 40 percent. The fear is these rising costs will cause a recession later in 2022 or 2023 Read More

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